Weather alerts for the NWS Great Falls MT forecast area

000
FXUS65 KTFX 281035
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
435 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warm temperatures are expected today with temperatures cooling
   down to well-below seasonal averages on Thursday and Friday
   across North-central Montana.

 - Snow is expected through Thursday morning in the East Glacier
   area.

 - Widespread precipitation is expected this weekend through
   Monday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Today an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, 
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow warm temperatures 
to persist with a few showers around. The showers will be primarily 
confined to the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and will be
primarily snow. On Thursday there is an upper-level ridge over 
North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. However cold 
air will slide south from Canada and bring well-below seasonal 
average temperatures to North-central Montana on Thursday. On 
Thursday morning snow lingers in the East Glacier area. Everywhere
else on Thursday it will be mostly dry. On Friday the upper-level
ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern 
Montana. This will bring mostly dry weather to the area on Friday.
On Friday the cool air from Canada remains over North-central 
Montana which will keep below seasonal average temperatures in 
place on Friday across North-central Montana.

On Saturday an upper-level trough begins to approach North-central, 
Central, and Southwestern Montana. There will be warm air advection 
due to southerly flow aloft which will warm temperatures up to near 
seasonal averages. Through the day on Saturday it will be mostly 
dry. Saturday evening through Monday an upper-level trough moves 
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will 
bring widespread precipitation to the area Saturday evening through 
Monday. This will keep cool (slightly below seasonal average) 
temperatures for North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on 
Sunday and Monday. Tuesday an upper-level ridge moves over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana this will allow 
temperatures to warm up with mostly dry weather. -IG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Today through Thursday morning along the higher elevations of the 
Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 70% chance for 6 inches of snow 
or greater. Today through Thursday morning at Marias Pass there is a 
50 - 70% chance for 2 inches of snow or greater. Wednesday afternoon 
through Thursday morning there is a 50% chance for one half inch 
per hour snowfall rates and a 20% chance for snowfall rates of one
inch per hour. As a result a Winter Weather Advisory has been 
issued for the East Glacier Park area from 3 PM Wednesday through 
6 AM Thursday.

Confidence is increasing that for next Wednesday through at least 
next Friday there will be a strong upper-level ridge over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This would bring well-
above seasonal averages for temperatures with a period of dry 
weather for next Wednesday through Friday. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
28/12Z TAF Period 

Light rain showers will affect areas along/north of Highway 2
from east of Shelby to about Harlem through mid morning. Also, 
expect rain/snow to affect the Rocky Mountain Front. Mid and high
clouds will affect much of Southwest MT through through period. 
Do expect some mountain ranges across the CWA to be obscured by 
clouds/precip through the period. Some dense fog will affect the
Cut Bank area through mid morning. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  28  39  28 /   0   0   0   0 
CTB  45  24  35  24 /   0  10   0  10 
HLN  49  28  46  26 /   0   0   0   0 
BZN  46  27  46  22 /   0   0   0   0 
WYS  37  22  42  19 /  10   0   0   0 
DLN  44  27  45  26 /   0   0   0   0 
HVR  48  27  40  21 /   0  10  10   0 
LWT  49  28  43  23 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT 
Thursday for East Glacier Park Region.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls