Weather alerts for the NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN forecast area

000
FXUS63 KMPX 281145
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
645 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of rain expected through early next week,
  including the potential for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon-evening.

- Temperatures to run above normal through early next week, with
  the warmest temperatures expected today as highs climb to 
  the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Despite what is generally zonal flow aloft, there is a
significant shortwave mid-level trough moving atop the Rockies 
during this overnight period which will eject into the Northern 
Plains later this morning. This trough will work in conjunction 
with a surface frontal boundary draped over southern MN 
currently to produce a potentially interesting and active 
weather day for this afternoon-evening.

The trough will shift across the Dakotas during the day today as 
strong southerly flow advects both higher moisture and warmer 
air into southern MN and western WI. By midday today, the entire
WFO MPX coverage area will find itself within the warm sector 
ahead of a low pressure center developing over eastern SD, with 
its warm front into northern MN and its cold front sagging south
over central NE/KS. Highs will range through the 60s and into 
the lower 70s, warmest near and south/east of the MN River while
dewpoints rise through the 50s, potentially reaching 60. 
Favorable timing for the frontal passage, allowing for peak 
heating with peak instability, will allow for a fairly wide 
swath of rainfall with embedded thunderstorms in western MN 
early afternoon which will shift eastward through this evening. 
Model soundings continue to show veering winds with height and 
favorable hodographs, indicating a decent potential for discrete
supercells. Though persistent cloud cover may be the limiting 
factor, there is enough model and analog evidence that a few 
tornadoes are not unreasonable for today in eastern MN into 
western WI, particularly for the mid-late afternoon hours. As 
the event progresses today, MLCAPEs are still progged to climb 
to around 1000 j/kg, which with colder air aloft, could 
transition the hazard from tornadoes to a hail/wind threat. Then
again, this is also a situation where the ingredients simply do
not come together due to lower instability, insufficient 
heating, poor frontal timing, or other meteorological 
hindrances. Thus, today is a highly conditional threat but one 
that bears watching, especially under the context that collab 
with the SPC has nudged the risk into the Slight (Level 2 of 5) 
Category for a small area around the Twin Cities metro and into 
far western WI.

The cold front will push well into WI later this evening and
into the Great Lakes by daybreak Thursday. As such, any and 
all rainfall will be completely out of our coverage area prior 
to midnight tonight, followed by drier, cooler and much more 
stable high pressure for Thursday. There's even a pretty good 
chance that we'll have plentiful sunshine for Thursday in the 
wake of today's unsettled weather. Highs for Thursday will drop 
to the 50s to lower 60s. The western extent of today's passing 
cold front, located over the Central Plains, will push northward
a bit on Friday into Saturday but not as much as previous 
forecasts. Thus, the chances for rain on Saturday are a bit 
lower and more confined to southern MN for only scattered rain 
showers.

A better chance for rain still looks to come Monday into Tuesday
but now the track of this system looks to stay farther south, 
greatly scaling back the potential for thunderstorms in lieu of 
more stratiform rain with the warm front remaining to the south 
instead of snapping northward into the Upper Midwest. This will 
limit omega lift and PVA in favor of greater isentropic lift 
across our coverage area and also tamp down temperatures from 
getting too far greater than normal. Highs Thursday-Saturday 
will remain in the 50s to lower 60s, followed by highs Sunday-
Monday in the upper 50s to mid 60s as this system moves across 
the region. Behind it, highs will return to the 50s for the 
middle of next week along with less active weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Low stratus has spread across the region at initialization
time, dropping ceilings over much of the area to IFR levels
along with morning fog dropping visibility to between 1sm-4sm.
Once the fog burns off and some wind picks up to the 5-10kt
range, MVFR ceilings will prevail for much of this TAF 
duration. A round of rain with embedded thunderstorms is 
expected to push across the area this afternoon-evening, 
particularly for central- eastern MN into western WI. Some 
gusty/breezy winds with sharp directional changes are possible 
with the passage of these storms, along with brief downpours 
which could push visibility into IFR range. Once the precip 
ends, steady clearing is expected along with winds veering to SW
and W with diminishing speeds.

KMSP...IFR ceilings will prevail for the first few hours of this
TAF duration, then MVFR ceilings will return for the afternoon 
hours in advance of the expected RA/TSRA. Timing of the main 
line looks to be near the afternoon push, in the 4pm-7pm 
timeframe. Some of the storms may contain frequent lightning, 
heavy downpours, gusty winds and hail. Once the storms clear out
to the east of MSP, winds will shift from S to W with speeds in
the 5-10kt range.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC