Weather alerts for the NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan WI forecast area

000
FXUS63 KMKX 281138
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
638 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry today, a bit breezy. 

- 60-80 percent chance for rain showers north and west of the
  MKE metro area tnt with lesser chances for MKE and south.
  Isolated thunderstorms possible. 
 
- Chances for rain continue each day through the weekend into
  early next week. 


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 637 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The forecast is on track for a return of 70 degree temps today
as a wave of low pressure tracks from the central high plains to
the Upper MS River Valley. The low will track northeast into
Ontario tnt and deepen while its cold frontal passage will occur
over srn WI from 10-16Z Thu. Numerous showers are expected but
with lesser chances over far se WI as the dynamics stay well to
the north. A few thunderstorms may occur as tall, skinny, elevated
CAPE is noted on fcst soundings. Subsidence and drying will then
take hold for Thu with clearing skies. High temps in the 60s are
forecast. 

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1237 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Today through Thursday night:

Some localized patchy fog was able to develop late this evening
despite the cloud cover. Temperatures were able to fall to the 
dewpoints or very close to (dewpoint depressions around 2 or 
less) under the diminishing winds. Winds are expected to remain
light and temperatures should continue to fall as skies are
clearing. Fog should stick to low lying areas and fields. If
temperatures plummet under the clear skies the fog could
potentially become more widespread and locally dense. 

The upper level DIV and PVA that brought us the small chance for
showers early this evening will continue to move northeast
toward the Hudson Bay through today. As the trough pivots and
moves northeast the upper level jet should increase at the sfc
the low pressure system in Ontario should also strengthen which
will tighten the pressure gradient across the Great Lakes
Region. This will create some breezy conditions across the
state. A few meso models are showing a bit of a weaker rain
signal. The few models that are doing this are slower to bring
in the mid level moisture and have a narrower moisture profile.  
This has effected the rain amounts with a cold front that is 
expected to pass through late Wednesday into Thursday. Despite
this not expecting a ton of change here even if the moisture is
a bit lacking this wasn't expected a huge rain producing event.
The biggest change would be that rain is more along a scattered
line. Either way there is still elevated CAPE in the area as
well which will bring the chances for a few rumbles of thunder. 

The front should clear Wisconsin during the morning hours with
high pressure moving in behind it. Skies should quickly clear
behind the front and some CAA will bring some cooler temps.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1237 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Wednesday through Monday:

High pressure will pull to the east of Wisconsin Friday which
should swing winds back around to the east to southeast. This
will bring back some WAA to the state. There is a bit of
uncertainty on if the the mid level WAA will be enough to get
some rain to develop. The forcing doesn't look all that great
and moisture will still be lacking under the easterly winds.
Conditions for rain starts to improve a bit heading to Friday
night into Saturday as the trough advects northeast into the
Central Plains and western Great Lakes. This track is still
uncertain however. The GFS looks to be the furtherest north,
EURO the furthest south with the CAN and NAM being some where in
between. The NAM by far seems to be the slowest with this system
at the edge of its forecast range. All these difference shift
around the axis of rain and the strength of the system as a
whole. At least we can bank on some consistency from the GFS as
it remains the rainiest option for southern Wisconsin. Kept to
the average among guidance which keeps POPS low around 15-30%. 

Looking further ahead to into early next week, guidance is
hinting at a larger and stronger low pressure system moving into
the central CONUS. There is a bit of discrepancies as one would
expect with the biggest caveats being how well the upper level
flow merges together with a northern and southern track trough.
The evolution of this system differs wildly from model to 
model, but this looks to kick off a more active period 
regardless. 

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 637 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions today and early this evening followed by numerous
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms late evening into the
overnight. A narrow band of MVFR Cigs may then develop along a
southeastward moving cold front from the early morning into the
mid to late morning on Thu. 

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 637 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

High pressure of 30.4 inches over New England will move offshore
later today, while weak low pressure over the central high plains
tracks to western Lake Superior for this evening. The low will
then deepen to 29.5 inches as it tracks northeast across Ontario
into Quebec through Thursday. Modest south winds today will become
breezy tonight with gusts approaching gale force over far northern
Lake Michigan. Winds then become southwesterly and come around 
to northwesterly with the passage of a cold front Thursday
morning. Winds then quickly slow behind the front Thursday 
afternoon and evening as high pressure of 30.2 inches works in 
from the central plains.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM 
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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