Weather alerts for the NWS Duluth MN forecast area

000
FXUS63 KDLH 281149
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
649 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
  possible this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
  winds, and maybe a tornado are potential hazards.

- Temperatures trend slightly warmer into the weekend and early
  next week.

- Mainly dry weather Thursday-Saturday, then more rain chances
  Sunday and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Clouds and fog abound this morning, and that will continue
through the morning and potentially into the afternoon with warm
air advection ongoing and plenty of moisture already in place. The
main forecast update this morning is a developing and 
conditional severe weather threat for this afternoon and 
evening. An upper level trough and a cold front will pass
through this afternoon and evening, and as of now, the timing of
that front is such that it will be passing through during peak
diurnal heating today. Strong warm air advection will allow high
temperatures to get potentially pretty warm in northwest
Wisconsin if we can see some clearing this afternoon. Upper 60s
are expected, and a few places could crack 70. If this clearing
takes place, we will have some instability to work for
thunderstorms. This could around or slightly higher than 1000 
J/kg. A potent low-level jet will be in place, and with
south to southeast flow at the surface and southwesterlies
aloft, there would be an ideal amount of streamwise vorticity
available for ingestion into updrafts ahead of the cold front.
This therefore introduces a threat for tornadoes. If we get 
that degree of surface-based instability, large hail slightly
larger than quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be
possible as well. Most model soundings show an inversion
sticking around through the afternoon within that ideal veering
wind profile just below the low-level jet. Thus, the situation
described above will happen only if all the ingredients can come
into place, most notably getting rid of most or all of the
stratus in northwest Wisconsin to allow for good diurnal
heating.

As far as storm organization goes, the threat for any supercells
will probably be pretty limited to northwest Wisconsin where
that potential for clearing out stratus is greatest. Elsewhere,
showers and storms will develop in the vicinity of the cold
front and likely organize to a quasi-linear structure. If we end
up with a case where stratus sticks around into the afternoon,
we will simply lose the surface-based potential of these storms
and get rid of the tornado and wind threat for the most part,
and the hail threat will be reduced but non-zero. 

The timing of severe weather will be somewhat limited because
the sun goes down early this time of year. Storms may develop
mid-afternoon, giving a ~3-4 hour window at most for the most
intense storms. After that, their intensity should decrease as
they move east, and they should clear out of the area before
midnight.

The rest of the forecast is largely unchanged. Please see the
previous discussion with more details on that.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

For the rest of the day, the widespread rainfall from early 
this morning has largely moved through the area. However, 
scattered showers are still expected to linger into this 
afternoon for far northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, 
which will squeeze out a few more hundredths of an inch of 
precipitation. As the rain showers depart, patchy fog is 
expected to linger in their wake. This will be particularly 
noticeable around the Brainerd Lakes area into the evening. 
Cloud cover will remain in place tonight with lows dropping 
into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the Northland.

Our active weather pattern continues right into Wednesday as another
low pressure system and mid-level wave approach from the Dakotas.
This will spread another round of widespread showers across the
region. Instability that will accompany these showers tomorrow will
lead to embedded thunderstorms during the Wednesday afternoon and
evening hours. Though the overall chances for severe weather remain
low, some communities could see small, pea-sized hail for a brief
period sometime in the late afternoon. South to southwest winds
will also be quite breezy ahead of this system, bringing warm
air into the region from the south and temperatures will be 
into the upper 50s and mid 60s for most locations.

The rain comes to an end late Wednesday night as a cold front sweeps
through, leading to a quiet end to the work week. High pressure
will build in for Thursday and Friday, bringing a return to 
plentiful sunshine across the region. With northwest winds 
expected behind the departing system, temperatures will be a 
bit cooler on Thursday, with highs topping out in the upper 40s 
to mid 50s. Pleasant conditions will hold through Friday, with 
high temperatures moderating back into the mid 50s to lower 60s 
under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Heading into the weekend, the pattern becomes active once 
again. Global models point to a deepening upper-level trough 
moving into the central United States, bringing broad chances 
for precipitation to the Northland from Saturday through Monday.
While the exact timing and placement of these weekend showers 
remain a bit uncertain, multiple rounds of rain are possible. 
Despite the clouds and rain, temperatures will remain 
warmer than normal through the weekend. Highs will consistently
reach the mid 50s to lower 60s, while overnight lows will 
comfortably stay above freezing, generally resting in the upper 
30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings will prevail this morning. There may be some
brief improvement this afternoon at HYR. Visibility will
occasionally fall into MVFR with areas of fog. This afternoon,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and pass
through from west to east. Some strong to severe storms may be
possible, especially at BRD/HYR. Following the thunderstorms,
expect a wind shift as a cold front passes through. Winds will
switch to westerly, and will become breezy overnight tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Expect south to southeast winds to develop this morning, then
shift to easterly during the afternoon ahead of a cold front.
Expect some gusts to 15 kt. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move through this evening. A few storms could
contain small hail. Winds will switch to westerly later this
evening behind the cold front, and winds remain westerly through
Thursday. Expect speeds to strengthen Wednesday night and gusts
to around 25 kt will be prevalent later tonight through
Thursday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all
nearshore zones. Winds decrease and become northwesterly
Thursday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rain and thunderstorms are expected today. Totals around a half
inch are expected for most, but higher totals perhaps slightly
in excess of an inch will be possible in thunderstorms. Drier
conditions are expected Thursday with some breezy northwest
winds. Min RH may fall to around 40 percent for some places.
Even drier weather is expected Friday with Min RH approaching 30
percent in northwest Wisconsin, but winds will be lighter.
Another dry weather day for the most part on Saturday, then rain
chances return around Sunday. Overall, fire weather conditions
should be minimal through the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-
     140>148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS