Weather alerts for the NWS State College PA forecast area

000
FXUS61 KCTP 280901
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
501 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added mention of fire weather concerns as a key message

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain-free and mild conditions will persist through the end 
of October

2) Fire weather concerns may start to increase later this week

3) Trending wetter to start November

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free and mild conditions will persist 
through the end of October

After a prolonged stretch of blue sky and sunshine, we'll see
increasing clouds today as a moisture-deprived warm front lifts
through the region. No rain is expected, but temperatures will
be several degrees cooler this afternoon compared to Tuesday.

Temperatures will trend warmer on Thursday ahead of another 
cold front and then decrease a bit into the weekend. Saturday 
will be similar to Wednesday with increasing clouds but no rain.
Daytime and overnight temperatures will be +5 to +15 degrees 
above average for this time of year through the weekend, 
providing great conditions for trick or treat. Whether 
neighborhoods are hosting beggars night on Halloween or moving 
it earlier, mild and dry conditions will prevail. 

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Fire weather concerns may start to increase 
later this week.

It has been almost two weeks since we've received any measurable
rainfall across Central PA. The combination of drying fuels,
increasing leaf litter, and low humidity air could result in an
elevated risk of wildfire spread Friday and Saturday. Friday
could be a bit breezy in the wake of a cold front. We will
continue to be in close communication with the PA Bureau of
Forestry about potentially ramping up our wildfire safety
messaging if conditions warrant.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Trending wetter to start November

After a rain-free second half of October, November will start 
off with a couple chances for rain. There remains some model 
uncertainty, but a trough should move through the central part 
of the United States early next week. This should deliver enough
upper level support to generate some accumulating rainfall 
across the Commonwealth. Climate Prediction Center outlooks lean
wetter than average for the first couple of weeks in November, 
though the signal is not super strong. Temperature trends favor 
above normal temperatures with much higher confidence. Notably, 
the monthly outlook for November begins to take on a classic El 
Nino pattern with above normal precipitation favored across the 
southeast US up through the I-95 corridor and below normal 
precipitation for the Great Lakes. This could set the stage for 
an active storm track bringing wet conditions to the Lower 
Susquehanna Valley while the northwest mountains continue their 
dry trend. Any locations that continue to be drier than average
will need to be monitored for an elevated wildfire risk as we
head deeper into fall.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High clouds will overspread the region today with southwest flow
aloft ahead of an approaching warm front. At the surface,
southeasterly winds will pool moisture east of the Alleghenies
and bring a risk for reduced ceilings/visibility in the south
central mountains this morning. Reductions are likely at KAOO
(high confidence in MVFR, IFR ceilings possible), but brief
restrictions are also possible at LNS, MDT, and UNV this morning
(generally 11Z-15Z).

Ceilings will lift and clouds will clear out later this
afternoon as high pressure builds in once again. High confidence
in VFR prevailing through 06Z. Thereafter, increasing moisture,
clear skies, and light winds will support the potential for
potentially dense valley fog tonight. Highest confidence in 
restrictions at KBFD, KMDT, and KLNS, but KIPT and KUNV may also
experience reduced visibility/ceilings.

Outlook...

Thu...AM valley fog then VFR.

Fri...MVFR ceilings possible mainly in the north and west.

Sat...MVFR possible north, VFR elsewhere.

Sun...VFR continues, rain possible Sunday night.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Banghoff
AVIATION...Banghoff/Beaty