Advisories

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 156.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 156.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 23.6S 151.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 155.4W.
19OCT26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171
NM EAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECOUPLING SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN 
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL ROTATION THAT IS BEING SHEARED 
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY STRONG NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 
090435Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE EXPOSED LLCC AND 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LLCC 
SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND 
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH RANGED FROM 35-55 KNOTS. 01P WILL 
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AND PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS SUGGEST THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE, OR HAS ALREADY BEGUN 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM 
WILL MOVE INTO PHASE WITH A 500MB TROUGH AND MOVE UNDER THE JET 
STREAM, AND COMPLETE ETT AS A GALE-FORCE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 999
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 22 FEET.//
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