Advisories

WDIO31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.0N 89.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 398 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL 
CYCLONE (TC) 02B AS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH STRONG DEEP CONVECTION 
WHICH IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. THE BULK OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WEST OF CENTER, LEAVING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST), AND STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING IN ANIMATED MSI. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK FIX AND AUTOMATED PRINT AND DMINT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 252209Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 260100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE IT IS STEERED BY THE EXTENSION OF A STR
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. 02B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM AROUND TAU 48, WITH DISSIPATION
ANTICIPATED NO EARLIER THAN TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, 02B IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS, WITH VWS REMAINING LOW. AFTER TAU 24, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INCREASE AND INDUCE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT AND WEAKENING THE STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48. SEVERAL JTWC RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS MET
TRIGGER CRITERIA, INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF RI WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PEAK THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE PEAK INTENSITY RANGES FROM 55 KTS (GFS) TO
105 KTS (FRIA AND RIDE). THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HEDGES ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE, ACCOUNTING FOR THE DEGRADING ENVIRONMENT AFTER
TAU 24. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
COAMPS-TC AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW//
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