Weather alerts for the NWS Marquette MI forecast area

000
FXUS63 KMQT 281132
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
732 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures climb well above normal today with widespread
  high in the mid to upper 60s.

- A quick hitting system brings widespread light rain to the UP
  tonight into early Thursday. Expect fairly minimal amounts in
  most locations, with the best chance for a wetting rain over
  the western UP.

- Expect a cooler and drier end to the work week as temperatures
  settle back into the 50s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early morning RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery show a pair 
of weak disturbances embedded in southwest flow aloft, one over 
northern Ontario and another over Lower Michigan. Radar reveals 
spotty shower activity departing the far eastern UP in association 
with these features, with broken mid level cloud cover and some 
patchy fog in place across the rest of Upper Michigan. Temperatures 
will spike well above normal today as continued warm advection sends 
850 mb temps to 9 to 11 C over the area this afternoon. The NBM is 
advertising high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s this 
afternoon. Feel this might be slightly overdone given the degree of 
cloud cover in place. Regardless, still expect temperatures to run 
15-20 degrees ahead of late October norms this afternoon as high s 
reach at least the low to mid 60s.

The next system approaches the area tonight as a surface low over 
the central Plains tracks quickly northeastward to western Lake 
Superior by later this evening, bringing a quick hitting round of 
rain to the UP from west to east tonight into early Thursday 
morning. Rainfall remain in line with previous forecast cycles, 
giving a roughly 50-75% chance for a wetting rain of a quarter inch 
across the western third of the UP and closer to a 10-25% chance for 
the central and eastern UP through Thursday morning. Could see a few 
rumbles of thunder accompany this activity given a few hundred J/kg 
MUCAPE. SPC even has a marginal risk for severe weather into the far 
western. Modest instability would seemingly be a significant 
limiting factor to this potential, but can't completely rule out a 
few stronger storms given bulk shear values of 40-50 kt by late this 
evening.

A cold front crosses the UP Thursday morning, with precipitation 
quickly winding down in the east as surface high pressure builds in 
from the northern Plains. This will drop highs back down into the 
50s in most locations on Thursday afternoon, with breezy west-
northwest winds also expected, especially in the Keweenaw and along 
the Lake Superior shoreline where winds will likely gust to 30+ mph. 
Cooler and drier weather continues into Friday as surface high 
pressure moves directly overhead. There is still a high degree of 
model spread beyond Friday as high pressure departs to the Atlantic 
this weekend. Guidance hints at a stronger system moving out of the 
Plains and approaching the Great Lakes during the early part of next 
week, but with a lot of variation with respect, to track, timing, 
and intensity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 732 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

MVFR cigs are present at IWD/CMX this morning while SAW remains 
stuck in the soup. Southerly flow and continued moisture advection 
hold similar conditions through the morning hours before breezy 
southerlies and better mixing help lift low cigs/vis to VFR by early 
afternoon at the latest. Another shortwave presses west of Lake 
Superior this evening, bringing a round of rain and even some 
thunderstorms from west to east, reaching IWD/CMX between ~22-03Z 
and SAW by 03-05Z. LLWS will be present at all sites tonight given 
veering wind profiles and 1-2k ft winds gusting between 35-45 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Lake Superior: Winds gradually veer south-southwesterly and diminish 
below 20 kt today as the latest system departs to the north and east. 
Southerlies quickly increase again tonight as another low tracks 
into northern Ontario, bringing about the next round of small craft 
headlines which appear likely to persist through much of the rest of 
the week. Winds shift northwesterly behind a cold front on Thursday, 
gusting to 25-30 kt over the eastern half of the lake aided by cold 
advection and pressure rises. Gale chances have increase to 50-60% 
over central and eastern parts of the lake per the NBM, but have 
opted against any watches for now as HREF and EPS probabilities show 
significantly lower gale potential. Winds diminish below 20 kt as 
high pressure builds over the region Thursday night into Friday.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Another low 
passing north of the area tonight increases southerlies to 20-25 kt 
through Thursday morning, necessitating a round of small craft 
headlines. Winds shift northwesterly at 10-15 kt behind a passing 
cold front on Thursday, with lighter winds then expected as high 
pressure builds in for the end of the week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...CB