Weather alerts for the NWS Detroit/Pontiac MI forecast area

000
FXUS63 KDTX 281053
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
653 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures return today and continue Thursday with highs in
  the 70s. These high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above 
  normal. 

- There is a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

- Dry and continued mild Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Early morning observations indicate a warm front extending eastward 
from Midwest low pressure to very near the west end of Lake Erie at 
forecast issuance. Easterly flow just ahead of the front and off the 
Lake lifted surface Td into the lower 50s at KTOL and KTTF which 
presents a short time window for MVFR fog/stratus as mid level 
clouds strip away and before the front moves quickly northward. SW 
surface wind traces the onset of VFR warm sector conditions under 
patchy mid and high clouds and late day shallow cumulus. These 
clouds also exit eastward or dissipate leaving clear sky and mild SW 
wind this evening. The eastern fringe of mid level clouds associated 
with the Midwest cold move in late tonight and the cold front 
approaches the MBS area toward sunrise Thursday. 

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF 
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

 * Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less early this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

DISCUSSION...

Much above normal temperatures today as highs reach into the lower 
70s behind a warm front lifting northward through Michigan. Normal 
highs for the end of October are in the upper 50s so we'll be 10-15 
degrees above normal. The front is running up against a very dry 
airmass with the persistent surface ridging that has been over the 
region for several days now so will pass with little in the way of 
showers. There were a few overnight over SW lower aided by a 
eastward tracking mid level wave, but were not able to drift much 
eastward into SE MI. Surface ridge will be sliding southeast through 
the day keeping us on the western side of it with increasingly 
southwesterly flow. This added warm air advection will help 
stabilize the airmass and provide the added boost in temperatures 
over the mid to upper 60s we've been experiencing. 

Best chance of rain in a couple weeks comes Thursday as a low coming 
together over the Canadian Plains tracks east across Ontario within 
an increasingly more zonal mid level flow pattern. Models have been 
pretty consistent with this system, showing a strong low level jet 
flaring up across IA and WI tonight with the stacked mid level wave 
and surface low over western Lake Superior produce a good coverage 
of showers and thunderstorms tonight. The forcing will get pulled 
north of the area as the system progresses east so by the time the 
cold front makes it to SE MI we'll have the decreasing LLJ at around 
35 knots with a narrow corridor of theta e and fgen. Mid level lapse 
rates are not overly impressive in the 6 C/km range with most models 
offering no CAPE. PWATs do jump up to around an inch with the ribbon 
of moisture ahead of the front so could still see some showers. 
We're continuing with a chance of showers Thursday across the area 
with mainly a 30-40 pop resulting in less than a tenth of QPF.  

High pressure builds in from Canada behind the front bringing cooler 
temps (850mb around 7-8C) and dry conditions Friday. Highs Friday 
will be in the low 60s with lows both Thursday and Friday nights 
dipping into the upper 30s for many locations. As the ridge tried to 
become re-established across the Plains heading into the weekend, 
there is remnants of a southern stream wave drifting into the Ohio 
Valley which will push a warm front back near the state line. GFS is 
much more bullish on the strength of this feature that the ECMWF, so 
at this point will expect increasing clouds with the front nearby 
and possibility of some showers Saturday near the state line. 
Overall the ridging will keep the region mild with above normal max 
temps in the 60s most of the forecast.

MARINE...

Winds veer easterly in the wake of a warm front this morning with 
modest speeds (10-15 knots) over Lake Huron, but gradient winds 
should be weaker (less than 10 knots) across the southern waterways. 
The post-frontal environment favors headline-free marine conditions 
through this evening with minimal gustiness as forecast soundings 
reveal adequate low-level stability. A cold front will approach The 
Straits tonight, and then track across the remaining waterways on 
Thursday. A stronger wind field will accompany this boundary with a 
post-frontal shift to northwesterly flow. Gales are unlikely as the 
supporting low-level winds appear out of phase with the inevitable 
stability adjustments from ensuing cold advection. However, a period 
of Small Craft Advisory gusts and/or wave heights could develop for 
the portions of the southern Lake Huron nearshore zones. High 
pressure then builds in for Friday and Saturday which eventually 
results in weaker winds. Models diverge in the placement and track 
of a low pressure system early next week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KGK


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