Weather alerts for the NWS Medford OR forecast area

000
FXUS66 KMFR 281056
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
356 AM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Persistent low pressure this week brings seasonably active weather 
  with low impacts.

* Temperatures remain relatively steady for the remainder of the 
  week and into the weekend, fluctuating within a range from around 
  10 degrees below normal to near normal. 

* Excellent model agreement through Friday with periods of light 
  shower activity, mainly for Coos and Douglas counties northward 
  today and again Thursday evening.

* Weak system moves inland on Saturday. Shower chances highest at 
  the coast, possibly extending inland during the afternoon or 
  evening.

* High pressure will likely bring drying and modest warming for 
  Sunday through mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Broad low pressure, now just offshore of Vancouver 
Island, will track southward today, then linger/wobble offshore of 
Washington/northern Oregon for the remainder of the week. Persistent 
onshore flow will bring periods of shower activity primarily to 
northwest portions of the area (Coos and Douglas Counties), but it's 
possible for some of those showers to make it as far west as the 
Cascades and as far south as the OR/CA border. The next round of 
shower activity is expected later this morning and early afternoon. 
Clearing skies ahead of this shower activity has allowed for 
widespread low clouds and patchy fog to develop in many of the West 
Side Valleys and even into the valleys east of the Cascades. These 
low clouds should gradually clear later this morning as shower 
activity increases and daytime mixing increases. High temperatures 
should trend warmer today by at least a few degrees, especially for 
southern and eastern areas where cloud cover will be less persistent 
this afternoon.

The position of the low will keep the greater coverage of shower 
activity to the north of the forecast area. Today's activity should 
wind down after sunset, though may not fully come to an end with 
isolated showers possible into Thursday morning for far northwestern 
areas. Little change in the sensible weather is expected Thursday 
and Thursday. The low is expected to remain offshore of Washington 
and northern Oregon, with a slight backing to more of a due 
southwest flow aloft. This will keep the more favorable dynamics and 
deeper moisture aimed north of our area, but another uptick in 
shower activity is expected late Thursday afternoon and evening then 
tapering off early Friday morning. 

Differences in the model guidance arise for Saturday as low pressure 
elongates and moves eastward late day Saturday into Sunday. As this 
system elongates, two distinct areas of energy develop and the EC 
suite of solutions brings the southerly portion of the energy 
farther south compared to the GFS suite of solutions. This 
difference between solutions means the forecast varies from light or 
very light showers remaining confined to the coast, or extending to 
the Cascades with a slight chance possibly warranted for the east 
side. For the daylight hours, the probability will be highest for 
(and most likely limited to) the coast. Toward sunset and into the 
evening is when those chances expand eastward if the EC suite is to 
be believed. If the GFS suite is correct, however, dry conditions 
would persist away from the coast and south of the Rogue-Umpqua 
Divide through the evening. For now, the forecast is holding a broad 
20-40% chance of precipitation for the 5pm-11pm time frame Saturday 
evening. 

Moving into late Saturday night into Sunday, if the more southerly 
solution is correct, guidance shows this southern energy tapping 
into energy from a trough digging to the south, and this would draw 
moisture northward across the East Side overnight Saturday. The flow 
on the farther north solution doesn't tap into this southern energy, 
resulting in drier conditions Saturday night and has it farther 
east. Current forecast leans toward the drier solution for the East 
Side, but does maintain a 20% chance of precipitation during this 
time frame.

Despite these model differences with the trough, there's fairly good 
agreement on the pattern for late Sunday into early next week. Upper 
level ridging moves into the eastern Pacific, bringing a decidedly 
dry period during this time along with a modest warming trend. Even 
though it's a "warming trend", this will actually bring temperatures 
back to normal or a few degrees above normal. Expect this pattern to 
persist through around mid-week, with a possible return to wetter 
weather for the latter half of next week/weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z TAFs...Clearing skies and recent moisture have 
allowed for widespread LIFR conditions to develop across many of the 
area valleys both west and east of the Cascades, as well as the 
Klamath River Valley. MVFR conditions persist along the coast north 
of Cape Blanco where a weak front is bringing isolated showers. This 
front will move inland gradually through the morning, which should 
bring improving conditions to area valleys/terminals by around 18z. 
MVFR or low end VFR ceilings are likely to persist along the coast 
and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide this afternoon, with VFR 
conditions expected elsewhere. 

Mid-level clouds will clear again this evening, increasing the 
chance for LIFR conditions in fog to develop across many of the 
valleys again. However, increasing high level cloud cover could 
limit the extent of development compared to this morning. 

&&

.MARINE...Updated 1230 AM PDT Wednesday, October 28, 
2026...Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue 
through the week. Winds are expected to remain below advisory 
strength. A series of seasonably weak disturbances will produce the 
strongest northwest winds in the Washington and northern Oregon 
offshore waters, which will push fresh north-northwest swell into 
the southern Oregon waters. This swell, combined with a lower west-
northwest swell, will persist through the week, gradually lowering 
Thursday into Friday. The outlook is for a long period west-
northwest swell to build from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to 
6-9 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$