Weather alerts for the NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA forecast area

000
FXUS66 KLOX 280926
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
226 AM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...28/225 AM.

Gradual cooling will continue through the week as will coastal 
flooding issues due to very high tides. The next storm system is
expected to arrive late Friday or Saturday with rain chances 
continuing into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...28/226 AM.

Very benign conditions will occur today and Thursday. The upper
level flow will turn more and more to the SW and on Thursday will
become more cyclonic. All of this in response to a cold upper low
spinning out of British Columbia. There is not much of any
inversion and there will only be patchy low clouds this morning.
Skies, otherwise, will be partly cloudy as high clouds embedded in
the upper flow drift overhead. The increase in cyclonic turning
combined with lowering hgts will bring a more robust marine layer
stratus field to the csts and some vlys Thursday morning. An
increase in the mid and high clouds will make the day a mostly
cloudy one. 1 or 2 degrees of cooling each day will keep most max
temps across the csts/vlys in the 70s or 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees
blo normal.

Friday will look a lot like Thursday with a broad mix of low, mid
and high clouds creating overcast skies. A few more degrees of
cooling will bring max temps down to the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The only real differnce will be an ~20 percent chc of a little
light rain with rainfall amounts, if any, under .05 of an inch.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...28/214 AM.

The weekend storm forecast still remains a the tricky side. This
system is more of a slug of moisture moving into and over the area
rather an organized front or low pressure system. And since all 
of the moisture is over the data sparse eastern Pacific there is a
good chance that the initial conditions for the forecast mdls are
less than perfect. Right now the best moisture assoc with the 
plume is forecast to move in south of LA county. There is still 
quite a bit of disagreement on how wet the plume will be. One 
thing is becoming more clear - the best dynamics will occur 
Saturday evening as a trof assoc with the upper low moving through
the PACNW will move through Srn CA. NVA follow close on the heels
of this trof and the chc of rain will diminish quickly from w to 
e later Sunday morning. The most likely rainfall totals for this 
system south of Pt Conception are about a third to a half inch 
with double those amounts across some south facing slopes. Less 
than quarter inch is forecast for areas north of Pt Conception. 
There is only moderate confidence in these numbers as some 
solutions show quite a bit more rainfall and some even less. 
Shorter range hier rez mdls will begin to forecast this storm 
later today and this may provide more clarity.

Due to the SW origin of the moisture plume snow will not be an
issue and will only fall above 9000 ft. Max temps will only be in
the 60s on Saturday with some warming into the upper 60s and 
lower 70s Sunday as there will likely be some sunshine in the
afternoon.

As is so often the case with trof passages upper level ridging and
offshore flow will develop. It does not look like there will be
advisory level winds but skies will be mostly clear and max temps
will rise 4 to 5 degrees on Monday and maybe a degree or 2 on
Tuesday. Longer range mdls are showing the chc of a weak system
arriving next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0925Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a 30 percent chc of MVFR
cigs at all non desert sites. VFR cigs 060-080 are possible at any
time. 

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for
BKN020-030 cigs from thru 18Z. BKN060-080 conds are possible at
anytime. Any east wind component is expected to remain under 8 
kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for
BKN020-030 cigs from thru 18Z. BKN060-080 conds are possible at
anytime.

&&

.MARINE...28/226 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level 
winds overnight, ending later this morning. From this afternoon 
through Saturday, moderate confidence in winds and seas remaining 
below SCA levels. There is a 30% chance for SCA winds this evening
for the waters north of Point Sal. On Sunday, there is a 50-60% 
chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high 
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On 
Sunday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon 
and evening hours. 

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels through Saturday. There is a 50% chance
for SCA level winds Sunday from the Santa Barbara Channel to the
southern inner waters. 

A significant storm system will impact the area sometime in the 
Saturday to Sunday timeframe. There is a wide range of outcomes, 
but there is at least a low threat of a 12-24 hour period of 
strong winds and step seas.

&&

.BEACHES...27/652 AM.

Very high tides between 7.5 and 8.0 feet (roughly 1.0-1.5 feet 
above astronomical predictions) are expected during the morning 
hours through Thursday over all coastal areas, with the highest 
towards Los Angeles County. Through Wednesday, the tides may
remain near record. In fact, at San Pedro, a new record tide of
8.02 feet was set on Monday morning. 

Minor coastal flooding is likely purely based on the high tides.
While these tides might be the highest of all-time, similar
extreme tides in the past tell us that coastal communities should
expect shallow flooding of harbor walkways, beach parking lots and
bike paths. With swells and surf on the lower-end during these 
extreme tides (2-3 feet), the threat of more significance/damaging
impacts should be limited to the most vulnerable areas that have 
little-to-no sandy beach left and have already seen water damage.

With that said, these is a small change for more elevated surf on
south-facing shores around Wednesday as waves from a southern
Hemisphere storm arrive. The majority of computer projections keep
this wave energy on the small side, but a couple are a little
larger. 

With all of these considerations in play, Coastal Flood 
Advisories are in effect today through Thursday. There is a low 
potential for targeted Coastal Flooding Warnings if a larger swell
develops and produces elevated surf on top of the very high 
tides.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 1 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/RAT
BEACHES...RK/RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox