Super Typhoon Surigae

WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 030    
   DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z --- NEAR 31.8N 138.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.8N 138.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 33.7N 141.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 36.5N 145.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 139.4E.
30SEP26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W (SURIGAE) AS A
HIGHLY SHEARED, ELONGATED, AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS COMPLETELY INUNDATED WITH DRY AIR. THE 301222Z ASCAT
DATA CONFIRMS THE CENTER IS STRETCHED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS A RESULT OF
THE ASCAT IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (35-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR INDUCED BY JET INTERACTION, MARGINAL (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND POOR OUTFLOW. 25W IS ENTERING INTO THE BAROCLINC
ZONE AND IS EXHIBITING CHARACTERISTICS INDICATING IT HAS BEGUN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, INCLUDING MODERATE THERMAL ADVECTION AND
EMBEDDING UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 25W WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION NO LATER THAN TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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