Tropical Storm Seventeen-E

EP172025 Eastern Pacific

Current Conditions

As of Oct 12, 12:00 PM UTC

Position
24.5°N 109.7°W
Intensity
25 kt
Pressure
1006.0 mb
Classification
Low

Track & cone

Best track Forecast track
Intensity: D TD TS Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 L Post-tropical / low · click points for detail
NHC Advisory 001 Sep 20, 08:56 PM UTC
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202056
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172025
300 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 104.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen-E was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 104.9
West.  The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 
mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday, 
followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north 
and northwest on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Significant strengthening is forecast, and the system is forecast to 
become a tropical storm by Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seventeen-E can be found in 
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header 
MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. 

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall totals of 
4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across 
coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacn, Colima, and 
Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Track

Time Position Intensity Pressure Class
Observed · best track
Oct 10, 06:00 AM UTC 17.0°N 102.9°W 50 kt 998.0 mb Tropical Storm
Oct 10, 12:00 PM UTC 17.8°N 104.4°W 50 kt 998.0 mb Tropical Storm
Oct 10, 06:00 PM UTC 18.6°N 105.9°W 45 kt 1000.0 mb Tropical Storm
Oct 11, 12:00 AM UTC 19.6°N 107.2°W 45 kt 1000.0 mb Tropical Storm
Oct 11, 06:00 AM UTC 20.4°N 108.2°W 40 kt 1002.0 mb Tropical Storm
Oct 11, 12:00 PM UTC 21.1°N 109.0°W 35 kt 1003.0 mb Tropical Storm
Oct 11, 06:00 PM UTC 21.8°N 109.6°W 30 kt 1004.0 mb Low
Oct 12, 12:00 AM UTC 22.6°N 110.0°W 30 kt 1004.0 mb Low
Oct 12, 06:00 AM UTC 23.5°N 110.0°W 25 kt 1006.0 mb Low
Oct 12, 12:00 PM UTC 24.5°N 109.7°W 25 kt 1006.0 mb Low

Track forecast verification

Stormlio's computation using NHC's method, against NHC's final best track. The official figures are in NHC's Tropical Cyclone Report, once published.

Error (n mi) 12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Official (OFCL) 28.222.2——————
Baseline (OCD5) 52.4118.2——————
Forecasts 75310000

Mean great-circle distance from the forecast position to the best-track position, for forecasts made while the storm was a tropical or subtropical cyclone and verifying while it still was. OCD5 is NHC's climatology-persistence skill baseline, over the same forecasts. NHC has not yet published the 5-yr means for this season’s comparison. Leads with fewer than 5 forecasts are not averaged.