Tropical Storm Seventeen-E
EP172025 Eastern PacificCurrent Conditions
As of Oct 12, 12:00 PM UTC
- Position
- 24.5°N 109.7°W
- Intensity
- 25 kt
- Pressure
- 1006.0 mb
- Classification
- Low
Track & cone
Best track Forecast track
Intensity: TD TS Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 L Post-tropical / low · click points for detail
Advisories
All advisories →NHC Advisory 001 Sep 20, 08:56 PM UTC
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 202056 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 300 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 104.9W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen-E was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 104.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north and northwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seventeen-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacn, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Track
| Time | Position | Intensity | Pressure | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed · best track | ||||
| Oct 10, 06:00 AM UTC | 17.0°N 102.9°W | 50 kt | 998.0 mb | Tropical Storm |
| Oct 10, 12:00 PM UTC | 17.8°N 104.4°W | 50 kt | 998.0 mb | Tropical Storm |
| Oct 10, 06:00 PM UTC | 18.6°N 105.9°W | 45 kt | 1000.0 mb | Tropical Storm |
| Oct 11, 12:00 AM UTC | 19.6°N 107.2°W | 45 kt | 1000.0 mb | Tropical Storm |
| Oct 11, 06:00 AM UTC | 20.4°N 108.2°W | 40 kt | 1002.0 mb | Tropical Storm |
| Oct 11, 12:00 PM UTC | 21.1°N 109.0°W | 35 kt | 1003.0 mb | Tropical Storm |
| Oct 11, 06:00 PM UTC | 21.8°N 109.6°W | 30 kt | 1004.0 mb | Low |
| Oct 12, 12:00 AM UTC | 22.6°N 110.0°W | 30 kt | 1004.0 mb | Low |
| Oct 12, 06:00 AM UTC | 23.5°N 110.0°W | 25 kt | 1006.0 mb | Low |
| Oct 12, 12:00 PM UTC | 24.5°N 109.7°W | 25 kt | 1006.0 mb | Low |
Track forecast verification
Stormlio's computation using NHC's method, against NHC's final best track. The official figures are in NHC's Tropical Cyclone Report, once published.
| Error (n mi) | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official (OFCL) | 28.2 | 22.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Baseline (OCD5) | 52.4 | 118.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Forecasts | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mean great-circle distance from the forecast position to the best-track position, for forecasts made while the storm was a tropical or subtropical cyclone and verifying while it still was. OCD5 is NHC's climatology-persistence skill baseline, over the same forecasts. NHC has not yet published the 5-yr means for this season’s comparison. Leads with fewer than 5 forecasts are not averaged.