Weather alerts for the NWS Rapid City SD forecast area

000
FXUS63 KUNR 281059
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
459 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, mild, and occasionally breezy for the rest of the week.

- Next organized chance of precipitation arrives Sunday night and
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave trough pushing through
northern WY into the forecast area with increasing upper level
ascent evident in expanding area of mid and upper level clouds.
Light precipitation is possible overnight through Wednesday
morning as the shortwave moves through, however the dry boundary 
layer will preclude widespread measurable precipitation. Moist,
upslope southeasterly flow will persist through the evening with 
patchy fog expected across portions of the western SD plains into 
south-central SD tonight. Otherwise, the going forecast remains on
track. Warmer and generally drier through the end of the week 
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Monday)
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Mean upper troughing over the PAC NW and western Canada will 
support general SW flow through the remainder week with weak 
impulses traversing the flow. Expect mainly dry weather weather as
these systems fight very dry low levels, although a few sprinkles
may be possible as each weak shortwave traverses the region. Dry 
air spreading into the region today, scouring out low level clouds
and fog. Expect breezy winds with highs in the 50s and 60s. Weak 
impulse will traverse the region tonight and may support isolated 
rain or snow showers from northeast WY into NW SD. Mostly virga 
expected, but a couple showers may reach the ground. Otherwise, 
for the rest of the week highs will generally be in the 60s, with 
high temp potentials depending on the timing of the thermal ridges
ahead each system. This could allow slightly warmer or cooler 
numbers than what the current forecast has. Upper trough will lift
out the Pac NW early next week, with unsettled looking more 
likely coupled better chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 459 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A very weak disturbance crossing the region will continue to
support low chances of a few showers across northeastern 
Wyoming, the Black Hills, and northwestern South Dakota through
about 15z/9am MDT this morning. The low-levels are quite dry west
of the Black Hills, so some of what you may see on radar will
likely present as virga (light rain/snow falling out of somewhat 
high cloud bases aloft) and not reach the ground. Cigs will remain
VFR. Meanwhile, better low- level moisture will support some 
patchy fog across the plains well south and east of KRAP, with 
transient LIFR cigs/vsbys resulting in a few spots. Otherwise, we 
return to a mild, dry, and occasionally (modestly) breezy week. 
Expect clearing skies from west to east between 14-17z/8-11am MDT 
today with no further impacts expected though the end of the TAF 
period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SE
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...KSmith