Weather alerts for the NWS San Juan PR forecast area

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280645
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
245 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

* Exceptionally high tides will continue today, with localized 
  flooding across vulnerable areas anticipated, mostly across 
  northern Puerto Rico.

* High Rip Current Risk will continue today for northern Puerto Rico
  and Culebra, while a moderate risk continue for Vieques and for
  the Virgin Islands. 

* Hot and humid conditions will persist, mostly affecting urban and 
  low-elevated areas across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

* Showers will taper off later in the morning along southwestern
  Puerto Rico. Additional showers are expected in the afternoon
  along the interior and the northwest.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

The night was cloudy, with showers affecting the southwestern 
municipalities of Puerto Rico. Showers and thunderstorms were 
widespread across the Mona Channel. The rest of the area was mostly 
clear, but a few showers did move across the vicinity of the Virgin 
Islands. Temperatures dropped to the 70s in Puerto Rico and hovered 
around 80 degrees in the Virgin Islands. Showers are expected to 
gradually taper off across western Puerto Rico around mid-morning, 
allowing for skies to continue to clear out. 

High pressure northeast of the Caribbean maintain the steering flow 
from the southeast at nearly 10 knots. Just west of Puerto Rico, 
moisture is being pulled from the south. This has been creating 
unsettled weather conditions across the Mona Channel. While there 
drier air to the east of the forecast area, leftover moisture and 
diurnal heating should be enough for convection. As a result, 
showers are expected to redevelop along the interior and west. The 
risk of flooding is low, but localized urban flooding cannot be 
ruled out. Lightning is expected as well with the afternoon storms. 
By the end of the week, upper level trough moves from the west. 
While this should usually result in unsettled conditions, mid-level 
dry air entrainment may limit shower potential. 

In terms of heat, 925 mb temperatures are expected to remain nearly 
two standard deviation above normal, which would normally translate 
into a moderate heat risk. However, due to the current cloud desk 
moving into the region, heating could delay a little. While the Heat 
Advisory was held for now, the users are advised to stay tuned 
for updates during the mid-morning hours. 

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Moist and unstable conditions are forecast to start the long term 
period. Moisture will continue moving over the local area, 
maintaining PWAT values above 2 inches for most of the period. A 
surface high over the Atlantic will result in an easterly flow to 
start the period, before becoming more southeasterly to start the 
next week and continue throughout the period. Mid-level drier air is 
forecast to persist Saturday, before becoming less pronounced Sunday 
onwards. An upper trough will be mainly west of the region to start 
the period, however some uncertainty persists with model guidance 
now suggesting that the upper trough will move away from the region 
early next week. However, guidance shows low- to mid-level moisture 
increasing as the period continues.  The trough will support through 
at least the weekend, cool mid-level temperatures (-6 to -7 C), 
steep lapse rates, and upper-level divergence, factors that promote 
cloud development and support deeper convection over the region. 500 
mb temperatures will warm up somewhat to around -6C during the 
workweek. Nocturnal and morning showers and t-storms are expected 
mainly over the weekend, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands 
and eastern to southeastern Puerto Rico. With above normal moisture 
persisting, afternoon convection will focus primarily over interior, 
western, and northwestern Puerto Rico, with streamers also 
developing from El Yunque and the local islands. Heavy rainfall 
totals may trigger urban and small stream flooding. Additionally, t-
storms may produce frequent lightning and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Passing SHRA expected across the Caribbean and Mona 
Passage through 12-13Z, then rain should dissipate. TSRA expected to 
develop after 17Z across the Cordillera Central and NW PR, causing 
mountain obscuration and periods of reduced VIS and low ceiling for 
TJBQ. SHRA will form in the vicinity of TJSJ, from 17-21Z. Winds 
will be from the SE AT 8-13 kts. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

The latest nearshore buoys continue to report subsiding seas, as the 
long-period northerly swell continues to diminish today. However, 
seas between 4 to 6 feet can be expected across Atlantic offshore 
and coastal waters, including the Monday Passage; small craft must 
continue to exercise caution. A surface high pressure over the 
central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh 
east-to-southeasterly winds across the region for the next several 
days. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move the Caribbean 
waters and local passages today, bringing gusty winds and lightning, 
leading to locally hazardous conditions for small craft.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 238 AM AST Wed Oct 28 2026

Beach conditions should gradually improve today, as the long-period 
northerly swell diminishes. Nevertheless, breaking waves between 5 
and 7 feet across northern-exposed beaches of the islands could lead 
to life-threatening rip currents. Therefore, the high rip current 
risk continues for the beaches along western to northeast Puerto 
Rico through this afternoon. Residents and visitors are encouraged 
to heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. 
Although the risk will become moderate over the next few days, 
beachgoers must still exercise caution as life-threatening rip 
currents are possible along the surf zone. Besides rip currents, 
extreme high tides will continue today, peaking up to 2 feet during 
the morning. This combined with the fading swell could lead to 
localized minor coastal flooding across vulnerable coastal areas.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for 
     VIZ001.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ERG
LONG TERM....MRR
MARINE/BEACH...MNG