Weather alerts for the NWS Elko NV forecast area

000
FXUS65 KLKN 280814
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
114 AM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and breezy conditions over central and northern Nevada
  lasting through Thursday afternoon. 

* Increasing precipitation chances this weekend from several upper
  level trough systems. 

* Cooler temperatures reaching several degrees below normal over
  the weekend.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: 

One more dry, yet breezy day on tap Wednesday as Nevada will be 
under the influence of a upper level jet max associated with a 
departing upper level trough that is lifting into the northern 
plains. The main impact will be to winds as breezy afternoon west 
to SW winds will reach speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with a few gusts up 
to 35 MPH possible. Attention will then turn to our next major 
weather system that will move in late Thursday and last through 
the Weekend. Models are still showing a complex upper level trough
setup with a large parent longwave trough digging south along the
wast coast, this trough will contain up to four local maximums in
vorticity, that will act as a focus for the development of 
showers and thunderstorms. The first will be a weak shallow 
shortwave that will lead the parent trough, moving through central
NV Thursday afternoon. Friday through Sunday, the main trough 
will push in with three remaining vorticity maximums. One off the 
coast of Washington, one off the southern California channel 
Island, and a third in the middle off of the SF Bay area. It is 
this third area that will serve as a focus for Nevada, bringing 
several rounds of isolated to scattered showers, thunderstorms, 
and mountain snowfall through Monday morning. To be fair there is 
still a lot of unknowns with this system, the first being is how 
are all of the vorticity centers portrayed in model solutions will
interact with each other. Second, how strong will these centers 
be. Third, what will be the track of the trough. Models in recent 
runs are trending stronger with the center vort max, which has 
helped bring some QPF recovery from yesterdays runs, however 
timing has shifted the bulk of the precipitation to Sunday, with 
isolated showers possible Friday and Saturday. With this system 
still well offshore, models will continue to be highly variable 
form run to run. Current multi-day precipitation amounts look to 
be about a trace to 0.35 of rain for passes and valleys, with up 
to 0.50 to an inch of water for the higher passes and mountains. 
Snow levels will again start high at 9000 feet, dropping to about 
7000 feet by Sunday. With a trace to 0.5 possible for the higher 
elevation passes passes, and up to 1 foot of snow for the range 
peaks. Monday and Tuesday high pressure will build in as the 
trough departs bringing quieter weather back into the region. 
Temperatures will be near to, to slightly below normal for the 
nest week, as high will range in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with 
lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: 
 
There is high confidence in quiet yet breezy conditions Wednesday
with winds out of the west to SW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to
35 MPH possible. 

There is high confidence for the potential for several rounds of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms starting late Thursday 
afternoon, and persisting on and off through early Monday morning.

There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Monday 
afternoon through at least Tuesday of next week which will bring 
quiet, dry conditions for the region. 

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through 
Thursday morning. Upper level system passing to the north will 
increase westerly winds to 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT 
possible. 


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire Weather conditions will be low to elevated for the next
several days for all zones. Winds will be breezy Wednesday as a
quick moving storm system passes to the north. Winds will be out
of the west to Southwest at 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35
MPH possible. Good news is that RH values will be high given the
near to, to below normal temperatures meaning Red Flag criteria
will not be met. After Thursday, a large upper level storm system
is expected to moving across the west coast through Monday
morning. This system will further reduce fire weather concerns as
several rounds of isolated to scattered rain showers, a few
thunderstorms, and mountain snowfall will be possible, even as
wind remain on the breezy side out of the S to SW at similar
speeds as before.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98