Weather alerts for the NWS Honolulu HI forecast area

000
FXHW60 PHFO 281325
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
325 AM HST Wed Oct 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A trough moving over the island chain from the west will bring 
clouds and showers to the state through tonight. An accompanying 
upper level disturbance provides the instability for the chance 
for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Conditions are 
expected to improve Thursday or Friday, with trade winds returning
this weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across the
state this morning. The bulk of the rain has stayed over the
central portions of the state with heavier rain moving towards 
Molokai, Lanai and Maui. Total rainfall that has fallen ranges
from a half inch to 2 inches over portions of Oahu. Slow moving 
cells may become anchored along the terrain of the islands, which
could lead to flash flooding anywhere. The High Wind Warning for 
the Big Island summits continues through noon. The Flood Watch 
will also continue and the possibility of extending it will be 
evaluated today. A few thunderstorms with localized damaging 
gusty winds may develop along the trough.

The threat of heavy rainfall will diminish Thursday and Friday. 
The jet stream aloft will lift to the north as the upper level
trough moves to the west and an upper level low develops along the
trough. The weak surface trough, with ample moisture will likely 
linger, providing a chance for spotty heavy showers. 

Friday night into Saturday a brief period of trade winds may 
return as the lingering moisture associated with the trough is 
pushed south of the islands. The GFS and ECMWF are showing breezy 
northeast winds developing Sunday as a shallow front moves near or
over the state.

&&

.AVIATION...

The line of SHRA/+SHRA that affected Oahu early this morning 
will continue to push slowly eastward over Maui County and to a
lesser extent the Big Island during the next several hours. 
Isolated thunderstorms are also embedded in this line. Expect 
periods of MVFR and IFR conditions associated with this activity
with mainly -SHRA elsewhere. PHTO and PHKO will start to see rain
moving within the next hour or two. Conditions will begin to 
improve from west to east through the day. 

Surface winds remain generally weak. However, thunderstorms could
bring brief gusty and erratic winds.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect abv 020 
for all islands due to the the widespread low clouds and pockets
of moderate to heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...

A vigorous surface trough extends over the coastal waters 
surrounding Maui County and Oahu today, while a broad surface low
continues to meander roughly 800 nm northeast of the islands. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are ongoing north of the trough,
with southeast to south winds south of the trough. Close to the 
trough, these winds could become locally strong, especially if a 
surface low deepens near the islands, and a Small Craft Advisory 
(SCA) is in place for waters around Maui County and Oahu through 
Wednesday evening. In addition, a few thunderstorms along the 
trough could produce erratic wind gusts in excess of gale force. 
The trough and possible low will weaken near the Big Island 
Thursday, allowing ridging to the north to drive moderate to fresh
easterly winds over most waters and southerly winds near Big 
Island. The trough will move south of Big Island Friday, and 
moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail Friday night into
the weekend. Stronger northeast winds may develop on Sunday and 
require an SCA.

A moderate, northwest swell will continue to fade today, allowing 
surf decline along north- and exposed west- facing shores. While this
swell fades by Thursday, a small, short-period north-northeast swell 
will persist through the rest of the week, and is likely to see a bump
tonight into Thursday with the arrival of reinforcing energy from the
northeast. This will keep small surf going along north-facing shores
and some east-facing shores. A larger, long-period northwest swell 
will arrive late Saturday and may push surf above the high surf 
advisory threshold Sunday and Monday.

A series of overlapping south-southwest swells will continue through
the weekend. The current swell is expected to produce surf above
seasonal averages today, with an additional pulse on Thursday
maintaining above average surf into Friday. Surf along south-facing
shores will decline gradually this weekend into early next week.

Surf along most east-facing shores will be dominated by wrapping 
north to north-northeast energy and a small, northeast swell that
could produce periods of moderate surf. Trade winds return this
weekend, leading to an increase in choppy, east shore surf through 
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Deep tropical moisture over the islands is bringing at times 
heavy rain and a few thunderstorms and is expected to last through
tonight and possibly into Thursday. Fire weather concerns will be
low through the next several days.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for all Hawaii islands-

High Wind Warning until noon HST today for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai 
Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-
Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Pailolo 
Channel.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Walsh 
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Quesada 
FIRE WEATHER...Walsh