Weather alerts for the NWS Flagstaff AZ forecast area

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281123
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
423 AM MST Wed Oct 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue
through Thursday. A series of Pacific storm systems will tap into 
more tropical moisture beginning Friday, with widespread showers and 
isolated thunderstorms moving across the state. Shower chances will 
diminish a bit for Saturday, with a more significant storm system 
possible for Sunday. Stay tuned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Some high clouds will stream across the area today as 
a long-wave trough slowly forms over the eastern Pacific. This will 
continue into Thursday, although hghts will not change that much. 
This means 2 more days of relatively mild and dry weather, with 
mainly light southwesterly winds each afternoon.

This developing long-wave trough will become the focal point for our 
weather from Friday onward, with 2 distinct weather producers on 
Friday, and again on Sunday.

The first wave of rainfall begins very early Friday, likely peaking 
over the south-central deserts Friday afternoon. This is in response 
to amplifying southwesterly flow that will pick up remnant tropical 
moisture from the Gulf of California and northern Sonora. Some of 
this moisture is from the decaying T.S. Vance and some is still our 
remnant Monsoonal moisture pool, that has never really been swept 
out. A weak s/wv trough in the southwesterlies will act on this 
moisture, bringing about a 12 hour period of precipitation. It does 
look as though most of this will be showery, possibly tied closely 
to upslope regions. The risk of strong thunderstorms is low at this 
time.

This moisture is shunted east Friday night and into Saturday, with 
weak subsidence behind the exiting s/wv. Moist southwesterly flow 
persists SaTurday, so some drippy showers remain possible, but not 
as widespread as Friday.

Later Saturday night and into Sunday, a much more significant event 
is possible as the main long-wave trough moves inland. As it does 
so, it will attempt to merge with a sub-tropical wave moving through 
the eastern Pacific at around 28N/29N. This may be a potent scenario 
and could lead to an extended period of moderate to locally heavy 
rainfall. Additionally, increased shear, large-scale ascent and 
colder air aloft raises the risk for severe weather. Due to the 
uncertainty with these 2 waves ability to phase, it is better to 
take a partially conservative approach. This still results in fairly 
widespread and rainy conditions, but a bit early to jump on board 
with severe weather and extensive flooding.

It is important to mentally prepare for the possibility of severe 
weather and extensive flooding, but that is not quite the official 
forecast yet. The combination of the 2 events could produce 1 to 4 
inches of rain across the area, especially over the south-central 
deserts and just south of the Mogollon Rim. Stay tuned for updates 
in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 28/12Z through Thursday 29/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Localized VIS reductions near terminals KFLG and KSEZ 
due to prescribed burns. Sfc winds generally light, then trending
S-SW10-15kts in the afternoon hours.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 29/12Z through Saturday 31/12Z...Expect VFR 
conditions through 10Z-12Z Friday. Then, areas -SHRA/SHRA and ISOLD
-TSRA producing localized MVFR for the remainder of the period. 
Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry conditions and 
seasonable to slightly above normal daytime temperatures. Expect 
afternoon south to southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday through Sunday...Expect cooler conditions Friday through 
Sunday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms that are likely 
to produce significant rainfall. The greatest potential for heavier 
rainfall looks to be on Sunday. Expect afternoon south to southwest 
winds at 10 to 20 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff